Calling All Supermodels: Can We Forecast the Number of Homicides in Baltimore for 2024?

We can try to forecast counts of events, but reality is a little more complicated than our current mathematical models.

My doctoral dissertation looked at homicides in Baltimore, using epidemiology tools to understand who is at highest risk and what can be done about it. I started by using historical data on homicides and looking at what changed in Baltimore from 2015 to 2018 (the year I defended the dissertation). Indeed, something happened in 2015, around the time Freddie Gray was killed while in police custody. Beginning in April and May of 2015, the rate of homicides in Baltimore skyrocketed:

Something else happened in 2023, when Baltimore had less than 300 homicides for the first time since 2014. And I write “something” in 2015 and “something” in 2023, because what happened to increase and then reduce homicides so significantly hasn’t really been established. There are theories and speculation. But there is no definitive answer yet.