I contend that we do make statistical inferences, but they’re based on our biased experience. If I throw a ball at the sky, odds are it will come back. I don’t expect a dragon to catch it. If I write over and over, and get feedback, my writing will adjust to what is statistically more likely to get praised, instead of what is more likely to get panned. Statistically, of course. From time to time, I make the same mistakes.